Property prices can be so unpredictable, even in areas that are considered great. This is why when searching for the right deal, you have to look at listings and be regularly updated about prices. In this episode, Scott Carson breaks down the bottom half of the top 50 markets that are starting to turn ugly based on days on the market, price drops, foreclosure ratios and homeowners that are underwater. He presents number 50th to 26th and presents some of their price ranges. Learn more from Scott as he talks about each of these cities and towns and tells us why they are turning ugly.
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The Top 50 Markets Turning Ugly (Part 1, 50-26)
One of the things that we do here on a constant basis with us buying debt all across the country, buying mortgages, where people aren’t paying, is we’re constantly tracking different markets, different cities, different states on what their default rates are, what’s going on in a market. Is it increasing? Is it decreasing? Let’s face it, since 2012, we’ve seen quite a bit of an increase in values across the country. Would it still surprise you that one in ten Americans are a month behind their mortgage already? That’s still pretty scary, 10% of the United States or that there are 200,000 homeowners across the country that owes 200% on their mortgage.
They’re upside down by 100% on their house. That is still substantial distress debt. Let’s face it, homeowners are getting squeezed. I talked to people all the time. Our staff talks to people all the time. Our servicing company and our team talks to borrowers all the time who are getting squeezed. It’s not the upper class, it’s the middle and the lower class. I literally had a conversation alone with a borrower, who wants to stay in her house. She has been struggling. She had been laid off. She works at [00:01:25]. She does odd jobs and whatever she can to make the payment. It was a great conversation with her. She’s somebody who wants to stay in her house. We are going to work with her. I hear these stories all across the country.
Everybody loves to talk, “There’s not a recession. Many markets are doing amazing. They recovered or rebounded or stronger.” I agree there are a lot of markets that are doing well out there. There’s also a lot that isn’t doing so well. The list of those names might surprise you. We were compiling a list as we’re doing some work and fortunate for us, some article popped up. I was like, “I don’t have to do all the work.” We found some markets that we’re surprised at. In reading one of the things when I wake up is I’m constantly jumping on USA Today, Yahoo Finance and trying to find out what’s going on. This article came out by Yahoo Finance. It was surprising. It was basically a list put together called the 50 Housing Markets that are Turning Ugly, not struggling but are turning ugly.
It was GOBanking who identify these places. GOBanking rates evaluated 500 cities to identify whichever had the highest rate of foreclosures and underwater mortgages out there. They also looked at changes in the meeting of house prices, listings, the number of days, homes in the market and the procedures for sale listings with the price gets compared to those figures with national averages to see which housing markets were lagging behind the nation as a whole. Obviously, there are some states that stood out. Florida has the highest number of cities with real estate markets that could be in trouble followed by Illinois. This is going to be a two-part episode. We’re going to focus on the market’s 50 through 26 for this episode and then we’ll follow up with episodes 25 through one.
50th: Fort Myers, Florida
There’s a lot of information. I was very surprised by some of the cities and others I wasn’t surprised because we’ve got our ear to the ground and listen to our realtors and our investors who are in those areas. We’re constantly tracking based on the market. We want you to learn more than anything else because that’s the thing, when we do these are people aren’t asking, “There are no deals. You can’t find any debt.” A lot of times you got to know where to look. We’ll cover a little bit on where to look with these deals and other things. I was very surprised by a market that we have spent quite a bit of time in the last couple of years. I bought quite a few assets. This is number 50. This is Fort Myers, Florida. The median home price is under $250,000. It’s down slightly about 1.4%. Just under 7% of the homes are underwater. They have a foreclosure for one in every 1,921 homes. House prices have dropped in the city in Southwest Florida while home prices nationwide have climbed an average of 9.4%. Prices have dropped 1.4% in Fort Myers on the same period plus houses for sale has been 105 days on the market in Fort Myers on average compared with the national average of 66 days.
49th: Newport News, Virginia
That’s a surprise one, especially as such a tourist area that area of Southwest Florida, there are several cities that hit the top 50. We talk about a good friend, Brent Garrett, who’s been on the show before. He’s helped me out with over a dozen properties where we bought the note and try to work out some modifications and end up with a foreclosure and/or fix it to sell it. Fort Myers top 50 place where there’s one in 1,900 homes are in default. Number 49 is in Newport News, Virginia. The median home price is $190,000. Two-year price changed down 8%. 19.2% of homes are underwater. They have a foreclosure for one in every 2,100. Newport News is near Virginia Beach. It’s more than double the national average as far as underwater mortgages. The national average is 8.2%.
48th: Georgia And Atlanta
However, the real estate market here hasn’t turned too ugly yet. In fact, the list of homes with prices in Newport News is only 12.6% is lower than the national average of 17.5%. That’s the great thing about Newport News. It has managed to make price cuts yet, but could that be coming out? Florida is a little bit longer foreclosure. Virginia is a non-judicial state so you can close a little bit faster. Number 48 is Cumming, Georgia. The list price is $383,000. It’s only down 1.2%. Only 4% of homes are underwater. One in every 2,300 homes is in foreclosure. Home prices are rising in the suburb of Atlanta, but not nearly as much as the national average.
47th: Toledo, Ohio
In fact, home prices increased an average of 0.7% over the past year and 21.8% of lists of homes here. I’ve seen price cuts compared with the national average of 17.5%. That’s the thing to keep in mind near Atlanta. Number 47 is Toledo, Ohio. We’ve got a lot in Ohio. Toledo has been good to us. The median home price is $84,900. It’s much more affordable. It’s only a third basically of what we saw, but a two-year price change is 8.8%. 24.7% of the homes are underwater. They have a foreclosure for one in every 1,428 homes. Home price growth is slow over the past year. Western Ohio is sitting in the banks of Lake Erie. However, the bigger problem here is the higher percentage of underwater mortgages, which is about three times the national average at 24.7% plus a number of foreclosed homes is higher than the national average. That’s the thing to keep in mind. Toledo, we’ve made a lot of money there, but there’s still a lot of debt. It’s a little bit more affordable at $84,900. Toledo is on Lake Erie.
46th: Illinois, Naperville
We’ve got some assets there that performed pretty well. We bought some nonperforming notes. It’s a great place to find a home. It takes us to the first city in Illinois, Naperville. The median list home price is $440,000. It’s down by 2.2%. Only 6.5% of the homes are underwater. It’s a foreclosure for one in every 3,900 homes. Chicago suburb had made it into plenty of best places to live basically. However, the housing market has been slumping here. Home prices have dropped more than 2% over the past two years. At 26.4%, Naperville has the highest percentage of listed homes with price cuts of any city in the top 50. Price cuts are dropping here because they’ve done well, but you got to be careful about that. Be careful when you’re looking and if you’re going to be buying some assets. The median home price is $440,000. You’re going to have some price drops. Think about that, 26%, $439,000 median list price. You’re losing basically $110,000 in price cuts if you think about that. Homes dropping price is not the percentage of list price, so that’s scary.
50 Markets Turning Ugly: While Toledo has made a lot of money there, there’s still a lot of debt.
45th: Sarasota, Florida
That takes us back to another city. As I called it God’s waiting room in the sunshine state in Florida, Sarasota, Florida. The median list price is $359,000. Two-year price range of 5.6%. Under hot water mortgage is only 4.5%. They have foreclosures, one in every 1,520 homes. Sarasota is South of Tampa. It’s on the Gulf Coast side. It’s a real estate market could turn ugly. Home prices have slowed. Houses for sale that are on the market for an average of 99 days. It’s far longer than the national average of 66 days. It’s a whole month further than the national average. On top of that, the foreclosure rate is higher in Sarasota than it is nationwide. Miami and Tampa areas where the two markets in Florida turned around the fastest.
44th: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Sarasota is south of Tampa and that’s where a lot of people that couldn’t afford in Tampa moved to. It’s gone through great gentrification. The market has rebounded back, but it’s obviously looking like it’s starting to turn. Number 44 is a very popular one, across the state in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The median list price is right at $500,000. Two-year price change down 0.2%, only 7% of homes are underwater. They have a foreclosure for one in every 1,507 homes. Obviously, Fort Lauderdale is a big tourist destination. The market slumping there. It’s 30 miles north of Miami. Home prices in Fort Lauderdale have fallen in the past two years and the average number of days where the house stayed in the market is 133 is double the national average. The national average is 66 days. Sarasota was 99 days. This is a month longer, 133 days. It’s four months’ average stay on the market.
43rd: Menifee, California
It takes us across for our West Coast city, Menifee, California. The average median list price is $380,000. The two-year price change is 8.3%. There are 5.5% of underwater homes. The foreclosure is one in every 808 homes. A city in Southern California is part of the LA Metro area. The median home price in Menifee is well above the national median. However, the housing market here could be headed for trouble. Menifee is the third-highest foreclosure rate among the list. If you’re looking for something in Southern California, LA County, there you go, Menifee, California for some defaulted debt. We’ll talk about some of the things that we can be doing, people looking for assets in these specific counties.
42nd: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
That takes us to roll tide, Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The median list price is under $208,000, 0% change, two-year price changes. 11.7% is the percentage of underwater mortgages. There’s a foreclosure for one in every basically 2,400 homes. Obviously, Tuscaloosa has done for the University of Alabama. It has a high percentage of homeowners with negative equity than the nation as a whole. Nearly 12% of mortgages are underwater here compared with that of about 8% nationwide. The foreclosure rate also is slightly higher in Tuscaloosa than the average across the United States. Do you want to go to school? Send your kid to University of Alabama, you might want to check on the default rates. You might check in the foreclosures there in Tuscaloosa.
41st: Wilmington, Delaware
One of the things that the article didn’t tell us is what price range the foreclosures are falling in. I’m going to go ahead and throw it out there. The price ranges across the boards for stuff like that. That’s across the board on average, but you’re going to see bigger defaults in the 200 or the market value are less as far as when it comes to defaults. That takes us a little bit up the East Coast there to Wilmington, Delaware. The median list price is under $195,000. Two-year price change of 5.5%. Underwater mortgages are 15%. There’s a foreclosure for one in every 1,218 homes. The percentage of foreclosed properties in Delaware’s largest city is twice as high as the national average and the percentage of underwater mortgages in Delaware is almost double the percentage nationwide. In Wilmington, we’ve got some friends that live in that neck of the woods. They’ve talked about Wilmington struggling and seeing defaults for the last couple of years.
40th: Naples, Florida
Number 40 is one of my favorite cities in the country. I got the chance to spend some time there. I still love to go back there. It is Naples, Florida. The median home price is under $408,000. The two-year price change is down almost 9%. 6% of the homes are underwater. There’s a foreclosure for one in every 2,500 homes. Naples was hit hard almost a decade ago but it rebounded. The housing market has been slowing on Florida’s Gulf Coast, while home prices nationwide climbed 9.4% on average. They’ve fallen 9% in Naples for the same period. The average days of the homes are on the market here is 140. It’s more than double the national average. That’s one thing to keep in mind.
39th: West Palm Beach, Florida
It’s a little higher priced area. You have a lot of international money coming into Florida and that loves Naples. Downtown Naples at night, you may be able to hear four or five, six, seven different types of languages speaking, but it’s the metropolitan city. It’s obviously different than the tourist areas of Miami or Fort Lauderdale. A lot of money there in Naples neck of the woods. Prices are down because people are looking to sell. A lot of people bought it there and they’re looking to sell those things. That takes us across the state there in Florida, West Palm Beach, which has recovered strongly. The median list price is $298,000. Change is 1.4% in the two years. The underwater mortgage is only 7.3%. You have foreclosures of one in every 1,300 homes. The home prices have risen slightly in West Palm Beach over the last few years. They’ve fallen in the past year. In addition, houses for sale stay in the market in this city, North of Miami, an average of 119 days compared with the national average of 66 days. The foreclosure rate is also higher there as well.
38th: Waterbury, Connecticut
Going back up into the New England part of the country Waterbury, Connecticut. The median list home price is $125,000. The two-year price change is 11.9%. Almost 30% of the homes there are underwater. There is a foreclosure for one in every 1,160 homes. If you don’t know where Waterbury is, it’s 77 miles northeast of New York City. They’ve risen over the past few years across the US. However, the housing market could be in trouble. The percentage of underwater mortgage is here is higher than any other city in the top 50. Underwater is higher at 29.4% of the homes in Waterbury. That falls in line with what we talked about being your lower-income people, 77 miles, they’re taking the train or are moving there but can’t afford to it.
37th: Plainfield, Illinois
That takes us back to Illinois. Number 37 is Plainfield. The median list home price is under $285,000. The price change is 3.6%. The percentage of underwater mortgages is only 7.7%. The foreclosure is one in every 1,138 homes. Home prices have been rising in this village, 35 miles Southwest of Chicago, but not the same rate as the national average. More telltale signs are that the housing market in Plainfield could be turning ugly at a relatively high foreclosure rate in percentages, home for sale and price cuts. In fact, Plainfield has the second-highest percentage of the listed homes with price gets at 25.3%. If you don’t want to buy in Crook County or in Chicago, Plainfield has some stuff that is definitely for you.
36th: Bakersfield, California
Number 36 takes us back across the coast to California in Bakersfield. The median list price is $236,000. Two-year price change of 1.1%. The percentage of underwater mortgages at 11.8%. It’s higher than the national average. They see a foreclosure in one in every 1,100 homes. Home price growth is an agricultural hub in California’s Central Valley region. However, foreclosures and underwater mortgages are even bigger problems for Bakersfield real estate market. The rates for both are higher than the national average.
35th: Jacksonville, Florida
That takes us back to Jacksonville, Florida. Jacksonville was one of the slowest cities to recover in Florida. It started at the tip and worked its way to the top. The median list home price is $219,000. The two-year price change is 11.8%. The percentage of mortgages is also 11.2%. They have a foreclosure for one in 814 homes. Home prices are rising at a fast rate in Florida’s largest city. If you didn’t know that Jacksonville is Florida’s largest city. On average, it’s increasing and across the US. Jacksonville has one of the highest foreclosure rates in any city on this list. The percentage of underwater mortgages in the city on the Atlantic Coast also tops the national average. If you like Jacksonville, Florida, you’ve got that on the coast there between that and Georgia. You’ve also got a big military presence there in Jacksonville as well.
50 Markets Turning Ugly: The housing market in Plainfield could be turning ugly at a relatively high foreclosure rate in percentages, home for sale, and price cuts.
34th: Orlando
If you go down the state a little bit to one of our favorite places to go to as well is Orlando. The median list price is $289,000. The two-year list price is $5.7. Underwater mortgages are at 6.6%. Foreclosures are one in every 1,328 homes. I like how the article said, “The current housing market in Orlando could use some Walt Disney magic to keep it from turning ugly home.” Home price growth towards tourist destinations has been slowing. The percentage of listing homes with price gets 21.2%. It’s higher than the national percentage.
The foreclosure rate in Orlando is also higher than the foreclosure in national. Orlando rebounded as strong, but what you have with the values going up and there’s such a tourist attraction. You’ve got to love Walt Disney, but they don’t pay their employees quite a lot. You’ve got a lot of service professionals. They’re working at the Universal, Walt Disney and the other attractions there that aren’t paying in premium wages. That’s why you see that. That doesn’t surprise me. Orlando itself doesn’t have a lot of rentals, especially inside apartments. You see them on the outskirts of Orlando for the most part. There’s some opportunity there if you want to start looking now on things.
33rd: McKinney, Texas
Number 33 is McKinney, Texas, which made the list. The median list price is under $380,000. The two-year price change is down to 1.3%. The percentage of underwater mortgages is 4.3%. They have a foreclosure for one in every 2,500 homes. The home price has been falling. It’s a fast-growing city that is 30 miles north of Dallas for a while. Home prices have risen on average of 9.4% over the past two years across America. Prices have fallen by 1.3% in McKinney. Plus, McKinney has one of the highest percentages of the listed homes with price cuts among the cities on this list. McKinney, Texas, if you like the area outside of Dallas, 30 to an hour-minute drive there in Oregon. It might be a place for you to look at for investing.
32nd: Summerville, South Carolina
It takes us to number 32 to Summerville, South Carolina. The median list price is $270,000 there. The two-year price change is under 5%. The percentage of underwater mortgages is 6.3%. The foreclosure is one in every 1,279 homes. House for sale lingers in the market longer in Summerville than the national average, 72 days versus 66. It’s not too far off the national average. The increase in home prices in the city 24 miles northwest of Charleston also is slightly behind the national average. The foreclosure rate in Summerville is twice as high as the rate nationwide. I like South Carolina. It is a judicial state. It takes about nine to twelve months to foreclose there. A lot of investors that were buying in Florida moved up to Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina to buy some stuff. One in every 1,279 homes is in foreclosure there. Be careful, but also people excited about Charleston. They’ve moved to a secondary market outside of that, 24 miles away. People have been making some money there. We’ve got some assets in Summerville as well.
31st: Maryland
That takes us up to Maryland, number 31. The median list price in Annapolis is $499,000. The two-year price change is about 0.7%. They’ve got a 9.5% of underwater mortgages. The foreclosure is one in every 3,964, under one in every 4,000 homes. This is something to keep in mind. The foreclosure rate in Annapolis is lower than the rate nationwide. The capital of Maryland’s housing market is showing some signs of trouble. Home prices have slowed. In fact, the city has a percentage of listed homes with price cuts with the percentage nationwide. Houses are staying in the market for longer than the US average. It’s staying on 80 days. Three months is still not too bad, but you’re starting to see price cuts as people are like, “I need to move.”
30th: Stamford, Connecticut
Number 30, back to Connecticut, at Stanford. The median list price is $570,000 there. The two-year price change is 3.5%. You have 11.1% of the borrowers are underwater with their mortgage. They have foreclosures for only one in every 4,500 homes. The housing market is slower in this city about 30 miles from New York. The home prices haven’t risen over the past year. The house for sale is staying on the market longer than the US average plus percentage of mortgages underwater in Stanford is higher than the percentage nationwide. If you don’t want to live in New York, you might be able to pick up something with a 30-minute commute to Stanford.
29th: Champaign, Illinois
That takes us back to the home of the University of Illinois in Champaign, Illinois. The median list home price is $165,000. The two-year price change is 3.2%. The percentage of underwater mortgages is at 11%. There’s a foreclosure for one in every 2,100 homes. The city that is home to the University of Illinois is showing signs of weakness. The growth in home prices had been slowing. Houses spend more days in the market of Champaign than they do nationwide. The foreclosure rate and percentages are higher than national averages there for you. We’ve seen price change from 84 Toledo up to $500,000 plus. That’s the thing to keep in mind. We’re still in that $500,000 range for the most part.
28th: Port St. Lucie, Florida
This takes us back down to Florida to Port St. Lucie, Florida. It is a great little area. The median list price is $247,000. The two-year price change is 7.6%. They have 6.2% of underwater mortgages. There’s a foreclosure for one in under every 1,200 homes. This is below the national average when it comes to underwater mortgages. If you don’t know where Port St. Lucie is, it’s basically halfway between Miami and Orlando. It’s about a four-hour drive from Miami to Orlando. It’s right about two hours in the middle. The foreclosure rate is twice as high there. You got to be careful there. It’s worrisome compared to everything else there. Home price growth is in Port St. Lucie as well. Prices change, foreclosures start to increase. It’s not on the water. It’s inland in Florida, but you start seeing things that are starting to turn there.
50 Markets Turning Ugly: The market starts to turn south when you see the price change and price cuts.
27th: Bradenton, Florida
Number 27 is back in the Tampa Bay area, Bradenton, Florida. The median list price is $294,000. Two-year price change 1.7%. 6.6% of the homes are underwater and they have a foreclosure for one in every 1,800 homes. The housing market is slowing more in Bradenton than in the neighboring Sarasota. Home prices have fallen 0.3% over the last year and 21% of the lists of homes of price cuts compare with 19.8% in Sarasota and 17.5% nationwide. Bradenton is gone through real gentrification over the last decade. You had areas there that were run down that came in. They were re-gentrified and the values have gone up quite a bit over the last decade. I like Bradenton and the Sarasota area. It’s more affordable. You can get a bigger bang for your buck than in Tampa, but you’re starting to see the drop there because people are starting to sell. The markets hit the top and starting to come down. That’s the whole thing when you see the price change and price cuts is that the market is started to turn south.
26th: Ocala, Florida
Number 26 will be the last one in this episode before we hit the top 25 in the next episode is Ocala, Florida. The median list price is $182,000. The two-year price change is about 9%. 10.3% of the mortgages are underwater. There’s a foreclosure for one in every 972 homes. This is an area in North Central Florida. The foreclosure rate is among the top ten highest on this list. Plus, the percentage of underwater mortgages in Ocala is higher than the US average. To top it off, home price growth has slowed over the past year. These are some economic factors that we talk about. The list price is changing, decreases, the price cuts, increase in foreclosures, increases in underwater mortgages. That’s quite a bit of the first half of the top 50 out there.
What can you do? If you like investing in this state, let’s talk about the states. You have a couple of California, Georgia, Florida, Illinois was hit hard, Connecticut, Maryland and South Carolina. Let’s not forget McKinney, Texas. You have six or seven states there. What are the things to do if you like those areas? The first thing is I would go to the counties in those cities. I go to the county clerk. It sends a lot of these words, judicial foreclosure states, looking for lists, filings. It is like the notice of defaults. It’s the same thing. A non-judicial state looks for notice of defaults. Some states don’t record those. Like in Texas, they don’t record the notice of defaults.
They do record the appointment of substitute trustee and that’s the pre-foreclosure list here in Texas. I would go to the county and look at the notice of defaults and start tracking the banks that have the most amount of those filings over the last three, six and nine months. You can run a list pretty easily off the county clerk or you can reach out to a local title company you’re doing business with and ask them. They may charge you for that, which is well worth it. What are you going to see? You’re going to see a lot of similar banks. A lot of lending institutions do that and those would be the institutions that I reach out to. I would pick up the phone or I would jump on Lane Guide and try to track down their special assets or secondary marketing department inside the institutions.
If I can find anything on Lane Guide or jump on LinkedIn and do the same thing. Look for somebody inside those institutions and start reaching out to them. The worst case is there’s been a foreclosure filing. There’s usually an attorney that’s been filed in and maybe they handle the foreclosures for everything in that firm. I would reach out to the attorneys and see if they could maybe give you a backdoor contact into the bank about buying debt and go from that route. What you’re seeing, national days on market 66 across the country, when you start seeing go from three months to four months, people will start dropping their prices dramatically to try to get a buck.
The last thing they want to do for the most part is when you look at the times of the year, they’re trying to sell their home either during the Christmas holidays or the summer holidays, but you have what’s dragging on four months, five months. They’re going to take the price because oftentimes, most people can’t afford a mortgage payment on a house they’re trying to sell it and either a rental that they’re paying for or it’s affecting them because they’re not in the same area or trying to sell because it’s too much for them. This is why you also will see an increasing number of short sale listings in an area. That’s another option for you to do as well.
Through underwater mortgages, take a look besides the default rates. Start looking at a list of short sales on the MLS. Reach out to a realtor and say, “Could you pull us these short sales in that neck of the woods?” This is something that we did over a decade ago when short sales were through the roof. Check who the banks are. You may want to contact a local realtor, work with them and coach them through that. The MLS will have a button. The MLS where you can see a realist report will show you who’s the most recent lender is that’s recorded and that gives you the bank to reach out to find the right contact information on Lane Guide, Distressedpro if you want to use that or LinkedIn as well for you.
You might want to use a couple of other lists. Jump on there and start dialing for dollars, especially lenders lending in those areas. Lenders known to in that state are going to be affected. You can also check people in those counties on Lane Guide. Think about that. Do a county search, check the assignment of mortgages. That’s an easy one to see who’s doing that in assignment by banks in those counties. We did one in Orange County, Florida, which is where Orlando is at and there are over 1,500 maybe entities that had mortgages that were either assigned to them or they assigned on. They were buying or selling mortgages. That became a great hotlist first to work.
Keep in mind those markets out there. That’s the first half of the top 50. It gets a little bit uglier than the top 25. We’ll go through in the next episode. I didn’t want to squeeze these two together. I thought there was too much great information, great targets, 25 cities counties that you can dive into. You saw a couple of areas around Tampa that are being hit. A couple of areas north of New York, around Illinois, around Chicago and also the Florida coasts as well, West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. As always, if you’d like to find more information on what we do in real estate and notes, you can feel free to text the word, NOTES, to 72000 or check out WeCloseNotes.com and register as a buyer there. We’ve got some great stuff going on and we look to share some more knowledge on what markets you should be targeting. We’ll see you all at the top.
Important Links:
- 50 Housing Markets that are Turning Ugly – article
- GOBanking
- Brent Garrett – Previous episode
- Lane Guide
- Distressedpro
- http://www.NoteBlueprint.com